health day reporter
Wed, July 6, 2022 (HealthDay News) — U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program reduces expected coronavirus death rate by 58%, saving hundreds of thousands of lives during first two waves Pandemica new study shows.
computer model estimation vaccine Between December 2020 and September 2021, the U.S. averted 235,000 COVID deaths, reducing the number of deaths caused by the original virus and its viruses delta variant.
Vaccination also prevented 1.6 million hospitalizations and 27 million COVID infections, according to data generated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The findings were published on July 6 in JAMA Network Open .
Dr. William Schaffner, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland, said the results “reinforce the notion that COVID vaccination clearly does work. It has been very successful in preventing deaths. If more people receive it With vaccination, we could have avoided more deaths.”
In fact, the vaccine may have saved more lives than estimated here, said Molly Steele, a CDC epidemiologist and lead investigator.
“These estimates only take into account the benefit for those who are vaccinated, and do not take into account the benefit from reducing disease transmission for those who are not vaccinated,” said Steele.
“As a result, our estimates of vaccine impact are conservative,” she said. “In any case, these estimates help illustrate the benefits of a COVID-19 vaccine in reducing infections and hospitalizations, as well as saving lives.”
So far, no one has determined exactly how many COVID-19 illnesses and deaths have been prevented by the three vaccines available in the U.S., CDC researchers said in a background note.
To try this out, the researchers developed a model that took into account estimates of the risk of infection, hospitalization, and death in unvaccinated age groups. They then incorporated the protective effect of vaccination into the population.
They determined that between December 2020 and September 2021, vaccination prevented 30% of expected COVID infections, 33% of expected hospitalizations, and 34% of expected adult deaths.
It is estimated that this includes preventing 154,000 deaths among people aged 65 or older, 66,000 deaths among those aged 50 to 64, and 14,000 deaths among those aged 18 to 49.
“COVID-19 vaccination may reduce the overall impact of COVID-19 by about a third,” Steele said. “This means that without vaccination, the number of illnesses and deaths will increase by 30%. Therefore, if more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, we expect further reductions in infections, hospitalizations and deaths.”
What’s more, the protection increased month by month as vaccination programs rolled out and more people were vaccinated against COVID, the researchers said.
In September 2021, the vaccine prevented 58% of expected deaths and 56% of expected hospitalizations, and 52% of expected infections.
“The findings are not surprising. A COVID-19 vaccine is undoubtedly the best way to prevent severe consequences of infection, including death,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
“The goal of vaccination programs for first-generation vaccines is to shift the disease spectrum to the milder side, decoupling cases from deaths,” Adaliya said. “This is clearly what the data exemplified by this modeling study shows.”
Steele added that the study doesn’t tell the whole story because it’s based on data collected through September 2021.
As a result, the study “does not reflect recent updates related to COVID-19 vaccination, including the authorization of booster doses for most age groups, and the expansion of COVID-19 vaccines to children 6 months and older,” Stein said. Er said.
“As more people continue to be vaccinated and receive boosters, more COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths could be prevented,” Steele added.
An improved COVID vaccine being developed by Pfizer and Moderna is expected to further improve this protection, Schaffner said.
“As I’d like to say, we’re expected to have to deliver COVID 2.0 this fall,” Schaffner said. “This will be a bivalent vaccine. It will have the antigens we use now, but will add antigens related to Omicron and its latest variants.”
The editorial noted that one-third of Americans remain unvaccinated, and new strategies are needed to reach these individuals.
“Without evidence-based strategies, we may continue to wonder why the same COVID-19 vaccine can reduce the risk of death by as much as 94%, but only prevent 58%,” the editorial reads.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more information about the COVID vaccine.
Sources: William Schaffner, MD, Medical Director, National Infectious Diseases Foundation, Bethesda, MD; Molly Steele, PhD, MPH, Epidemiologist, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Amesh Adalja, MD, Senior Scholar, Center for Health Security, Johns Hopkins University; JAMA Network OpenJuly 6, 2022