The Pennsylvania Republicans screwed up. How you can do?

By Athan Koutsiouroumbas for RealClearWire

A common metaphor in dating and sales is “no response is response.”

Some interpret the lack of response as indecision, leading to tactics of trying harder and louder. However, effective organizations and leaders understand that no response is unequivocal, albeit a quiet refusal to inform. In turn, they adapt.

In what is about to be a historic wave of elections for Pennsylvania Republicans, statewide candidates have suffered such staggering losses that they have swayed the no-vote race. Despite some bright spots, such as a huge victory for Congressman Mike Kelly and the Pennsylvania Senate remaining firmly in Republican hands, the 2022 midterm elections are a major setback.

what happened? Republicans in Pennsylvania didn’t vote at all.

With the national environment increasingly becoming a referendum on the policies of the Biden administration, most observers believe that Republicans will vote in record numbers to voice their displeasure. It didn’t happen.

related: FiveThirtyEight puts Republicans at 50/50 chance of winning Senate

In Democratic stronghold Philadelphia, where nearly a quarter of the Commonwealth’s likely Democratic voters cast their ballots, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz could lose by just one point. 320,000 vote. The GOP could have won in a big way, but it lost.

Republican turnout was well below expectations and could be behind by more than 250,000 votes, or 10%.

By choosing not to vote, Pennsylvania Republican voters are choosing “don’t respond” as their message to party leaders. Why Republicans haven’t come forward more is the subject of much speculation. Here are some suggested explanations.

Candidate Qualities: Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano ran the most unconventional campaign in modern Pennsylvania history as a major party nominee. Pennsylvanians have no history of electing a celebrity candidate like Dr. Oz, especially after a frustrated primary in which opponents exposed Oz’s political responsibility. The top Republican, who typically drives turnout, leaves a lot to be desired.

Abortion: Following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, pro-abortion advocates recommended that the Republican-controlled legislature pass a constitutional resolution empowering voters to decide whether abortion is a state constitutional right. The strategy may have been legally sound but proved politically anachronistic. The vote allowed Democrats to characterize the election as a referendum on the future legality of abortion rather than that the abortion procedure should be legal. In a state where a majority of voters support some form of abortion access, the resolution could prevent some voters from voting Republican and keep others away from the polls.

Mail-in ballots: Republican voters’ hesitancy to use mail-in ballots has its roots in the uneven application and enforcement of mail-in ballots across Pennsylvania, breeding mistrust. Lawsuits are addressing various issues, and mail-in ballots are clearly here to stay. Republicans need to start using them.

TRUMP: Donald Trump dominated the headlines in the final days of the midterm elections, reminding voters that perhaps a major Republican victory would pave the way for his return. Many anti-Trump Republicans may not have voted to punish the Biden administration, but stayed home to protest.

The “post-political” state: From COVID to inflation to disenchantment, a seemingly endless stream of government mismanagement and institutional failures could keep many conservatives at home on Election Day. Conservative voters who believe in limited government may have reached a tipping point and opted to withdraw from public affairs altogether, compared with liberal voters who see political participation as a key form of self-expression.

The good news for Republicans is that these speculative reasons can be remedied. In fact, Republicans in Pennsylvania have bounced back before.

related: Minority Leader McCarthy predicts GOP House; Senate too close for call

after republican barbara harver devastating loss With support for incumbent Democratic governor Bob Casey in 1990, Pennsylvania Republicans worked hard to rebuild their party from the ground up. Within three years, those efforts culminated in two U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s office and a Republican majority in the state House of Representatives.

For the GOP, it’s not clear who or what in Pennsylvania should take the lead, though there’s no doubt in which direction it should go.

Regression among Pennsylvania Republicans does not mean a retreat from conservative policies and positions. Quite the opposite: Effective leadership by strong candidates has repositioned Ohio and Florida from former swing states to de facto red states. In neither case did conservatives convert their beliefs. A realigned Republican Party — pro-growth, pro-worker, anti-woke — is a clear formula for long-term success. Republicans need to find a Pennsylvania-centric model from Ohio, Florida, and even Virginia.

In addition, the worsening socioeconomic conditions that led many to predict a red wave election are unlikely to ease under a Biden administration, which largely contributed to them. Pennsylvania Republicans will get another taste in just over a year, as potential candidates begin their primary campaigns.

When opting not to vote this November, Republican voters in Pennsylvania sent a clear message. Time will tell if Republican leaders will listen and adapt. The clock is ticking.

Syndicated under license from RealClearWire.

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