December 13, 2022 – COVID-19 vaccination prevented 3.2 million deaths and 18.5 million hospitalizations in the US from December 2020 to November 2022According to a new report Tuesday from federal funds and the Yale School of Public Health.
The report, based on computer modeling, comes as the United States approaches the second anniversary of the War on Terror. Managing the first COVID The vaccine provided care for Sandra Lindsay in the country on December 14, 2020.
The cost savings from these avoided medical bills collectively saved the U.S. health system $1.15 trillion in Baltimore, according to a report by a team led by Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Ph.D., and the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland.
“Without vaccination, nearly 120 million more people would be infected with COVID-19,” the authors wrote.
Over the past 2 years, more than 655 million doses of the vaccine have been administered in the United States, with 80% of the population receiving at least one dose, the report said.
Fewer cases, hospitalizations and deaths
Since December 12, 2020, the United States has reported 82 million COVID-19 infections, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 798,000 COVID-19 deaths, according to research data.
The model shows that without vaccination, the number of infections in the United States would increase by 1.5 times, the number of hospitalizations would increase by 3.8 times, and the number of deaths would increase by 4.1 times.
Consider all variants
The study considered the pattern of five variants, each accounting for at least 3% of U.S. cases in addition to the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, including Iota, Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Omicron.
“We assessed the impact of vaccine rollout by simulating pandemic trajectories under a counterfactual scenario in which there was no vaccination,” the authors wrote.
“This report underscores the basic and important truth that vaccines save lives,” said DHSc Syra Madad, senior director of the Systemwide Special Pathogens Program at Health and Hospitals in New York City.
She said this study and a study last month JAMAopen network A look at New York City’s COVID-19 vaccine campaigns and their return on investment shows that these campaigns “reduced the number of infections and deaths, lowered hospitalization rates, avoided health care costs, and provided broader economic benefits such as staying healthier , healthier lives” productive workforce. ”
The New York report last month found that every dollar invested in vaccinations saves an estimated $10.19 in direct and indirect costs that would otherwise be incurred without the vaccine.
The savings estimates are fairly narrow, which makes them more reliable, said Timothy Brewer, MD, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at UCLA.
These predictions, he said, are consistent with recent findings that second booster vaccinations are consistently highly protective against hospitalization and death (compared with first booster vaccinations) CDC Research More than 9,500 nursing home residents.
“I think they’re probably very reasonable numbers,” Brewer said.
It’s important to measure the success of the vaccines by focusing on how many hospitalizations and deaths they prevent, which is the main goal of the vaccines, not breakthrough infections, he said.
Numbers May Underestimate Savings
Co-author Dr. Alison Galvani, founding director of the Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis The model focuses only on acute infections and may underestimate the total benefit.
Fewer infections also mean fewer cases and the attendant costs of long-term COVID, she noted.
While the study was conducted in the United States, the savings and infection prevention could inspire other countries working to achieve vaccine coverage, as well as organizations distributing vaccines to resource-poor countries, Galvani said.
“The scale of these numbers is impressive,” said William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.
“It’s a report to the American people,” he said, “that says, ‘We’re asking you to invest in this, and you’re spending your tax money. You know, the vaccine works. A lot of your family, your neighbors, your friends are dying today. With you, being able to celebrate the holidays because they got vaccinated.’”