The dos and don’ts of the instant travel boom
There are important caveats to predictions of an immediate travel boom. China is suffering from a deadly wave of COVID-19, flights (including fuel surcharges) are expensive, and the Chinese economy isn’t buoying the middle class the way it used to be.
Beyond that, a number of countries—Britain, Italy, the United States, and Japan, most notably—decided New testing requirements for Chinese tourists Abandoned by other arrivals.
But analysts at Citigroup currently assume that China’s high-end travel industry will recover steadily in the first quarter of 2023, and mass market tourists will recover in the second quarter.
Citigroup’s Xiangrong Yu said the real boom could come around the five-day Labor Day holiday in May. All of this could put more pressure on China’s current account if outbound travel spending quickly returns to pre-pandemic levels.
“Besides sightseeing and shopping, pent-up demand for outbound business travel, overseas investment and hidden capital outflows may also be unleashed,” he said.
geopolitical push
But beyond the immediate financial impact, the return of Chinese tourists could have a major impact on business and contribute to a subtle geopolitical nudge: re-diversifying perceptions of China.
