Global emissions have fluctuated in recent years, dropping sharply during the pandemic-induced lockdowns in 2020, but rebounding in 2021 and likely rising further in 2022.
Experts say 2023 could be the start of a plateau in emissions, as the world’s largest emitter experiences slow growth and ramps up investment in renewable technologies. But uncertainty remains — not least about whether the world can begin the necessary decline in emissions to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
“I think we’re still in a world where global emissions are pretty flat,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist who works at payment processing company Stripe. “We are unlikely to see significant reductions in global emissions in the next two years. Flattening is still better than what we have seen in previous decades, but the energy transition will take time to accelerate.”
Emissions may increase in 2022. Carbon Monitor, an academic emissions tracker, estimate Emissions through October were 1.8% above 2021 levels.which is much less than 5% bump The Global Carbon Project forecasts 2021 as rising inflation and interest rates dampen economic recovery.
So what does 2023 mean? Here are four trends that will shape the trajectory of the world’s emissions in the coming years.
1. It’s the economy, dumbass
Historically, the easiest way to forecast emissions growth has been to examine the outlook for the world economy. Historically, economic growth has meant more energy consumption and higher emissions. Recessions usually mean the opposite.
Many forecasters are lowering their growth forecasts for 2023.IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva recently Say She expects slower economic growth in China, the United States and Europe, the world’s first, second and fourth largest emitters respectively.
But just how slow, and whether the world will slide into recession, remains to be seen.
The world’s three major economies face greater uncertainty. Will the US economy continue to shrug off rising interest rates in 2023? Will Europe succeed when it phases out Russian gas shipments in 2022 thanks to a combination of energy savings, LNG imports and warmer weather?
Then there is China. Relatively slow growth in global emissions in 2022 is partly due to China’s “zero-Covid” policy and its suppression of the Chinese economy. But the country recently rolled back that policy — a decision that will undoubtedly affect prospects for 2023.
“If the Chinese economy makes up for lost time, we could see a massive increase in global emissions,” Hausfasser said. At the same time, he said emissions growth could slow if a wave of Covid cases throws the Chinese economy off balance.
2. Green investment surges
One of the biggest developments in recent years has been the surge in spending on clean energy.
International Energy Agency estimate Such spending has grown 12% annually since 2020, up from 2% annually in the previous five years. China leads with $380 billion in clean energy investment in 2021, followed by the European Union with $260 billion and the United States with $215 billion. By contrast, investment in oil, coal and natural gas has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
All of this is before the U.S. ramps up clean energy spending in 2022. The Lower Inflation Act would provide $369 billion in clean energy tax credits over the next decade. Congress also poured money into the industry through the bipartisan Infrastructure Act and the CHIPS and Science Act.
According to Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University, US clean energy spending will total around $900 billion over the next 10 years. How that money is spent is one of the big trends to watch in 2023.
“The fact that the U.S. is joining this clean energy race has a huge shock to the global economy,” he said.
Countries were already slowing emissions growth even before the money poured in. During the first decade of the 2000s, emissions grew by an average of 3% per year. Over the past decade, this figure has slowed to 0.5% per year, according to to the Global Carbon Project. The drop coincided with a decline in coal power generation in the US and Europe, pointing to a greener world economy.
“The world’s rich economies have decoupled economic growth from CO22 emissions,” Wagner said.
Yet Wagner was quick to note that total emissions were still rising. Greenhouse gas emissions in China and India, which still rely on coal, continue to grow. And the U.S. and Europe are not suddenly ditching fossil fuels.
recent analyze Rhodium Group’s 2021 emissions show that the post-pandemic lockdown economic rebound has been particularly carbon-intensive, with demand for fossil fuels growing faster than US and European GDP.
“None of this has been successful in the sense that emissions have gone down, how cool,” Wagner said. “That means we’re adding less and less to the atmosphere, but we’re still adding.”
3. Popularization of electric vehicles and heat pumps
Climate advocates have long bemoaned the lack of progress on greener transportation and buildings. In that sense, 2022 brings welcome news. Sales of electric heat pumps, which can replace oil or gas furnaces in buildings, hit record highs, according to to the International Energy Agency.
Meanwhile, EV sales continue to grow rapidly. Nearly 10% of global car sales will be electric vehicles in 2021, four times the market share in 2019, according to the IEA. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, total EV sales will grow to 14% of the market by the first three quarters of 2022.
Both trends are worth watching in 2023, as transport and buildings account for nearly a quarter of global emissions. But neither is likely to change emissions in the next few years.
Why?
People don’t buy a new car or a new furnace every year. For example, in the United States, the average vehicle age is 12 years.
“Inventory turnover is not good news in areas such as electric vehicle adoption,” said Principal, U.S. emissions analyst at Rhodium Consulting. “It’s just going to take time to see these changes manifest.”
4. Coal and renewable energy
Short-term emissions reductions depend on the transition to clean power plants. But last year, there was a tug of war between renewables and coal.
Record renewable energy generation prevents around 600 million tonnes of additional CO2 emissions2 According to the IEA, emissions, or roughly Germany’s annual emissions (Climate Line, October 20, 2022). But the world also set records for coal power generation, with Asia and Europe switching to the carbon-intensive fuel amid high gas prices.
So what will happen in 2023 and beyond?International Energy Agency expect Over the next five years, renewable energy will grow at lightning speed. In a recent report, the agency predicted that 2,400 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity would be installed globally by 2027, equivalent to all the electricity capacity currently installed in China and more than the renewable energy capacity forecast by the International Energy Agency a year ago. 30% higher installed capacity.
“If there’s anything other than the recession that’s going to drive a big drop in global emissions, it’s likely to be renewable energy,” Hausfasser said.
But don’t expect coal to disappear anytime soon. While the rebound in coal use in Europe may be short-lived, Asia appears set to rely on the high-carbon fuel for years to come. Coal consumption in India has grown by 6% annually since 2007 and will likely remain the engine of global coal growth.
China is a big question mark.International Energy Agency predict Coal use in China will grow at just under 1% annually through 2025, leading to a leveling off of global coal consumption.
Coal is the world’s largest source of carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, emissions analysts believe that global CO2 Production is also likely to level off in the coming years.
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